Upset Watch: The 5-12 Games

For the past six consecutive NCAA Tournaments, a #12 seed has upset a #5 seed. While this is, of course, a coincidence, that won't stop many pool entrants from picking one of these upsets to occur this year. Of the four 5-12 matchups, which one holds the best possibility of an upset?

One way to analyze the possibilities is to see which of the 5 seeds seems to have an overly generous seeding, and which of the 12 seeds feels underrated.

The 5 seeds:

Butler. With one of the best defenses in the country (57.2 PPG), Butler certainly can stop its opponents. But its slow-paced game leaves it open to opponents sticking close until game's end. Butler has beaten almost every tournament-caliber team it's faced this year, but did lose twice to Wright State (a 14 seed) as well as a few teams not in the tournament. Overall, Butler's seed seems a bit generous, and the team seems more like a 6 seed than a 5.

Viginia Tech. The Hokies can beat a high-quality team (for instance, they swept UNC in the ACC regular season), but they're also prone to lose to inferior teams. This year they lost to Western Michigan, Marshall, and NC State -- three times! They're 2-3 in their last five games. A 5 seed seems a little high.

USC. The Trojans can shoot -- they're leading the 5 seeds with a .403 3-point percentage. But they're 2-3 in their last five games, and have a lot of losses to mediocre opponents, including South Carolina, Kansas State, Arizona State, and Washington. Given chances to beat excellent teams like Kansas and UCLA, USC has fallen short every time. They're right on the line between a 5 seed and a 6.

Tennessee. 4-1 over their last five games, with a potent offense (79.7 PPG) and fantastic wins against three of the top teams in the tournament -- Memphis, Texas and Florida -- Tennessee seems undervalued by the selection committee. Though their defense is lousy (74.4 PPG), they still seem more like a 4 seed than a 5.

The 12 seeds:

Old Dominion. They're 4-1 in their last five but were bounced from the CAA tournament by a less-than-stellar George Mason team. They've lost to a couple of bad teams but do have the biggest marquee win of all the 12 seeds -- a 13-point victory at Georgetown. They're a solid 12.

Illinois. The Fighting Illini don't have any amazing wins but they don't have any embarrassing losses, either. They were one of the last teams in but seem appropriately seeded at 12.

Arkansas. The Razorbacks' win against Southern Illinois is a nice one, but their losses to Missouri and Mississippi State aren't too exciting. Overall Arkansas seems pretty mediocre, perhaps a 13 seed in a world with fewer spot-filling upsets in conference tournaments.

Long Beach State. They've barely played anyone -- they lost to the three good teams they played this year, Air Force, USC and UCLA, by an average of 16 points. While they score a lot (80.3 PPG), their uptempo game means they give up points by the bushel (73.8). They are 5-0 in their last five games, but it's hard to imagine this team as better than a 14 seed.

So looking at the matchups...

Butler (6) vs. ODU (12)
Virginia Tech (6) vs. Illinois (12)
USC (low 5) vs. Arkansas (13)
Tennessee (4) vs. Long Beach St. (14)

...it seems as though no one game matches up an overseeded 5 against an underseeded 12. If one 12 could surprise, it's probably ODU, but I'm predicting the 5-12 games will be devoid of upsets in 2007.